Super Two-sday

March 15, 2016

Super Tuesday is a day that makes all political junkies tingle all over. It is the day that seperates the heroes from the zeroes. The haves from the have nots. The leader from the also-rans. Super Tuesday was a very successful day for two candidates in 2016, Hillary Clinton for the Democrats, and Donald Trump for the Republicans. Super Tuesday gave both of these candidates large leads in delegates, as well as momentum, and discussion in the media. However, Super Tuesday is not the end all be all of the election.

After cruising to victory in most Super Tuesday states, Hillary Clinton was on easy street. She won Virginia, Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennessee by over 20%. She had a commanding lead in delegates, built up by absolutely dominating Bernie Sanders in Southern states with large black populations. The momentum for her candidacy was cresting. However, the weekend after Super Tuesday, Bernie Sanders won caucuses in Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine, while Clinton only won in Louisiana. These elections were a shot in the arm for the Sanders campaign, and he was able to change the emerging narrative after the first Super Tuesday. Exactly one week after Super Tuesday, Hillary Clinton was hoping to deal the knockout blow. With Mississippi and Michigan on the docket, the Democratic Primary looked like it would be coming to an end. Both the Clinton and Sanders campaigns knew that Mississippi would go for Hillary by a huge margin (which it did 84-16). The most recent polling had her up by 20 points in Michigan. However, that polling was WAY off. Sanders won Michigan by 1.5%, and kept his campaign alive, and changed the narrative.

Going into the second Super Tuesday, the map seems to be favorable to Bernie Sanders. Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Florida will cast their votes in the nominating process. Sanders’ surprising win in Michigan could be a signal that the Democratic race is far from over. Ohio, Illinois, and to some extent Missouri have similar histories and demographics to Michigan. Polling in these 3 states shows the race is neck and neck, so it is anybody’s guess as to who will win. If Bernie Sanders’ campaign can replicate his success in Michigan in Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri, then he can keep the Democratic Primary going for a long time. If he can close the gap in Florida and North Carolina, and keep those from being Hillary blow outs, he can make the case that the rest of the map is favorable to him and his message, and actually give Hillary a real run for her money. On the flip side, if polling in Florida and North Carolina hold up, and Hillary wins these 2 states in blowouts, AND she is able to win in Missouri, Illinois, and Ohio, then there is absolutely no way for Bernie to catch her. This is the real Super Tuesday. After results come in tonight, we will have a much clearer picture of who will be the Democratic Nominee for President of the United States.

**On the GOP side, the only hope for the anti-Trump wing of the GOP is that Marco Robotio can miraculously win Florida, and John Kasich hold onto his lead in Ohio. If those races go Trump’s way, that’ll be it for the GOP Primary season as well.**


Archive by date